We are 53 games (more or less) into the 2018/2019 NBA season and teams are finally starting to either hit their strides or show their lack of depth.
The Milwaukee Bucks still stand on top of the Eastern Conference and the Golden State Warriors have finally decided to push their way to the top of the Western Conference.
We are likely to see a lot of position swapping in the west as we push towards the playoffs. The teams are just so tightly packed with regards to talent.
The Warriors and Raptors are still the favorites to win their respective conferences. There are daily lines available at many online outlets as well. If you are looking to find a sportsbook we recommend doing a little research. You can start with this YouWager Review.
Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks @ 8 PM ET
The Wizards head to Wisconsin to face the top team in the Eastern Conference. When we just glance at these two teams it is clear that the Bucks are likely to win at home. But, what about the point spread? It’s 12.5 points, which is quite a bit.
The situational offensive differential between these two teams is 11 points. The Washington Wizards are middle of the road…on the road.
They average 108.8 points per game, while playing as the visiting squad. The Bucks, on the other hand, are No. 1 in the league while in Milwaukee. They average an impressive 119.96, so let’s just call it 120 a game at home.
When we look at average offensive stats in any situation, Milwaukee still holds a five-point advantage. But, the real difference maker is on defense.
The Bucks allow just 107.2 per game on average and 105.69 at home. The Wizards are not very magical on the highway. They rank No. 28 for points allowed on the road at 118.04. Their 116.04 overall defense is not much better.
So, we can bet that the No. 1 home team going against the No 28 defensive road team will result in a trouncing. Hence, the 12.5 point spread.
NBA Pick – Take the Milwaukee Bucks to score 125 points and put the Wizards down by double digits.
On top of this, I would lean on the OVER 231. If the Bucks stick to their offensive average of 108 and the Bucks put up numbers into the 120s as I would expect, we should see the over cash as well.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors @ 10:30 PM ET
The Warriors are listed as 10.5 point favorites over the Spurs in Oakland on Wednesday night.
Let me start by stating that the Golden State Warriors have not been a safe bet at home. This doesn’t have anything to do with their talent but with the fact that bookmakers give them ridiculous point spreads while at home. 10.5 against a 32-23 Spurs team is a perfect example of this.
At this point, the Warriors are just 10-15-1 covering the spread at home. As a home favorite, they are 10-14-1. Even as a basic favorite, GSW is just 21-25-1. The flip side of this is the Spurs are 16-9 ATS as underdogs and 9-8-0 as away dogs.
To add salt to this ATS wound, San Antonio has covered the spread in the last three meetings with Golden State. The last time these two teams met, the Warriors lost 104-92 in Texas.
So, To just throw them out there as double-digit favorites seems a little rash. The numbers just don’t line up for a spread this high. Of course, the Warriors could always explode into a 135 point game. But, San Antonio always plays the Warriors tough.
NBA Pick – Take the Spurs to keep the game within 10.5