All types of prediction and simulation site projects.fivethirtyeight.com has done its NBA playoffs simulation.
According to the simulation, the Los Angeles Lakers have a 27% chance of winning the playoffs, while the Clippers chances of doing that are just 1% lesser (26%). Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks are behind the two Los Angeles teams, having 20% chances of winning the NBA Finals.
The Philadelphia 76ers go below the above mentioned teams with chances of 10%. The Rockets, Celtics, Raptors and Nuggets gets a 7%, 6%, 2% and 1% respectively.
According to the site, these forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts — tracking injuries, trades and other player transactions — to generate talent estimates for each team. A team’s full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. A team’s current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team’s next game. Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent.
