Despite Kevin Durant going out again, and the refs seeming to want the Raptors to win…, the Warriors held on to win Game 5 in Toronto by a hair.
Now, the Raptors have to head back to Oakland on Thursday (13/06) to try to close out this series on the road.
Most online betting sites have the Warriors listed as 3.5-point favorites, but after seeing the way Toronto has played, the nearly 70 percent of the public is on the underdogs to cover.
Let’s break it down.
The Total Score
As far as how these two teams score when playing each other, the Total is now 5-4-1 over the last ten meetings. So far in this series, the Total is tied up at two OVERS, two UNDERS, and a PUSH.
Thursday’s total is set and can be found at 210.5 at sites like Intertops and 211 at Bodog and Bovada. So, depending on which side you like, you can find a little bit of an advantage by shopping the different sportsbooks.
Out of the five games that we’ve already seen, only one has gone below the 211 mark. That was Game 4 in Golden State, 92-105.
Game 1 was 109-118, for a combined score of 227 and the OVER cashing. Game 2 109-104 for a combined score of 213 for a PUSH.
Game 3 saw the Total fall back down to 211.5, but the score was 109-123 for a massive OVER. Finally, Game 5 had a higher total of 217, so the 106-105 score cashed for UNDER backers.
Will we see a resurgent Golden State team at home or will Toronto’s defense hit lockdown mode and limit the scoring?
Kevin Durant was on crutches Monday night with a bum Achilles so we won’t see him back. It’s a shame, because we would like to see the Raptors beat a complete Warriors squad, not a hobbled one. And Durant was on fire at the beginning of Game 5.
That said, Klay, Green, Iggy, Boogie and Steph are all healthy so it’s still a tough road victory for the Raptors.
The Raptors are tough and they could very well win this game, but it won’t be on defense alone. They are going to have to outscore the Warriors at Oracle, so a 106-105 or better is quite likely.
The Dubs average 117 per game in Oakland and I think they will use their weak side swinging tactics to great effect on Thursday night, with Steph, Draymond, and Klay all getting their chance at points.
Take OVER 210.5.
When it comes to covering the spread, the Warriors are just 1-5 over their last six games in Oakland against Toronto.
This 3.5-point number seems prime for a backdoor Raptors cover, but it’s just as likely that they get into a late free throw battle and lose by six or seven.
The Raptors will be in it right up until the final seconds and I almost want to lean on them to cover the 3.5.
But…, the point spread is a coin toss at this number. I think the sportsbooks did an excellent job of setting the line. So I’m going to lay off and just enjoy the game and take my chances with the TOTAL.