As the Australian NBL 2026 regular season edges toward its conclusion, the finals race is beginning to take shape. While a clear group of contenders has emerged, the battle for seeding — and the final playoff spots — remains fierce. Here’s a detailed look at each contender’s playoff chances, followed by a projected final ladder.
Adelaide 36ers (Currently 1st)
The 36ers have set the pace for much of the season and deserve their status as one of the Championship contenders. With elite scoring power led by five-time MVP Bryce Cotton, strong guards and an offence capable of overwhelming teams in short bursts, Adelaide look built for finals basketball. However their recent form hasn’t been great, and they’ve even had to downplay internal crisis speculation in the media which can only be a major distraction for the team. Their challenge will be maintaining defensive intensity and avoiding lapses against fellow contenders, but if they finish top two, they’ll be in the mix.
Sydney Kings (Currently 2nd)
The Kings appear to be peaking at the right time. Their balance on both ends of the floor, combined with late-game composure, makes them a genuine title threat. Sydney’s depth allows them to absorb off nights from key players, and if momentum carries into finals, they could be the most dangerous team outside the minor premiers. They are well coached by the legendary Brian Goorjian and the current Championship favourite at the best sports betting sites.
South East Melbourne Phoenix (Currently 3rd)
South East Melbourne have been one of the most watchable teams in the league, thriving on pace, perimeter shooting and confidence. When their offence is flowing, they can beat anyone as the highest scoring team in the league. The Phoenix’s Playoff fate may hinge on their ability to lock in defensively against top-tier opponents and close out tight games under pressure. They would love to pinch a top two spot to lock in their Playoff spot, as they currently sit narrowly behind the Kings on percentage.
Melbourne United (Currently 4th)
Melbourne United may not always dominate the headlines, but their experience and structure keep them firmly in the Championship conversation. They started the season looking unstoppable, but after a rocky mid-season, they now find themselves behind the leaders but still with plenty of hope in season 2026. Finals-tested personnel, solid rotations and tactical flexibility make United a team no one wants to face in a knockout series. Consistency remains the question, but their ceiling is high.
Perth Wildcats (Currently 5th)
Perth’s season has followed a familiar script: competitive, resilient and quietly effective. Their ability to grind out close wins and handle pressure situations gives them classic Playoff credentials. While they may enter the finals without top-two expectations, their championship pedigree makes them a serious dark horse.
Tasmania JackJumpers (Currently 6th)
Tasmania continues to scrap their way into contention. They aren’t flashy, but their physicality, defensive effort and mental toughness suit sudden-death scenarios. They are battling injuries at the wrong time of the season, and seemingly falling over the finish line, but if the JackJumpers can hold on to a Play-in berth, they have the profile of a team capable of pulling off an upset.
New Zealand Breakers (Currently 7th)
A heartbreaking loss to the JackJumpers leaves the Breakers on the fringe of the finals race. They are now two games behind 6th so will need some upsets to claw their way in. At their best, they can challenge top-six sides, but inconsistency has hurt their ladder position. A strong late-season surge is required, and even then, their margin for error is slim.
Illawarra Hawks (Currently 8th)
The reigning champions are on the brink of missing finals altogether which is not the Championship defence they were hoping for with the talent they have on this roster. Injuries and form fluctuations have stalled their momentum, and they likely need multiple wins against finals-bound teams to sneak into the Play-in picture.
Cairns Taipans (Currently 9th)
The Taipans have struggled to find sustained rhythm this season. While there have been competitive performances, injuries have left too much reliance on Jack McVeigh for them to challenge for the top six.
Brisbane Bullets (Currently 10th)
Brisbane’s season has been disappointing relative to expectations. With finals hopes gone, they’ll turn their attention to development and roster decisions ahead of next season.
So who wins the 2026 NBL Championship?
The 2026 NBL Playoffs are shaping as one of the most competitive in recent memory. Adelaide may enter as the top dog on the NBL ladder, but their recent form does leave some doubt with Sydney and South East Melbourne peaking at the right time of the season. Meanwhile, Melbourne, Perth and Tasmania form a group of battle-hardened challengers who are all capable of making a deep run.
If the South East Melbourne Phoenix can pinch a top two spot then they appear to have the most weapons of any team and will be hard to beat for the 2026 NBL Championship.
