Photo: Peter Baba

While Giannis Antetokounmpo is not expected to request a trade before the NBA Draft or the start of free agency, the Milwaukee Bucks still find themselves at a crossroads.

The two-time MVP is reportedly maintaining an open mind about his long-term future with the team, but how the Bucks approach this pivotal offseason may ultimately shape whether he stays or goes in the coming years.

The Bucks are facing a series of significant challenges: they are severely limited by the salary cap, have seven players heading into free agency, including several key contributors, and lack control of their first-round draft picks for the next five years due to past trades.

All of this has led to heightened speculation around Antetokounmpo’s future.

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst laid out the gravity of the situation during Tuesday’s First Take, saying:

“Let’s talk some facts before we get into anything else. The Bucks have seven free agents. Seven. Three or four of which I would refer to as core players. The Bucks do not have salary cap space. The Bucks do not control their first-round draft pick for the next five years. They can’t trade it. They can’t trade the pick or the swap.”

Windhorst added that while the organization remains committed to keeping its franchise cornerstone, no guarantees are moving forward:

“The Bucks are not interested right now in trading Giannis Antetokounmpo. And Giannis, to our knowledge – to my belief – has not asked for a trade. Those are the facts.”

However, the NBA landscape could shift rapidly depending on what Milwaukee does, or fails to do, over the coming weeks.

Windhorst continued:

“We are before the draft. We are before free agency. Will the Bucks do some things over the next two, three weeks to put themselves in a position where they can look like they could win the Eastern Conference with those limitations? Maybe.”

This uncertainty around Antetokounmpo has had ripple effects across the league. Multiple teams are reportedly keeping an eye on the situation, including the New York Knicks, Miami Heat, and Houston Rockets.

Windhorst suggested that several front offices have been hesitant to make aggressive moves, in part because of the possibility that Giannis could become available later:

“That’s why the league is waiting. People want to know why aren’t the Knicks going all in for Kevin Durant? Why aren’t the Heat going all in for Kevin Durant? Because, in part – there’s other reasons – but in part they want to see what happens here with the Bucks. And we’re going to be watching closely.”

The Phoenix Suns, meanwhile, completed a blockbuster trade sending Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets in a deal that was widely viewed as underwhelming by league insiders.

According to reports, the Suns had initially hoped to wait for clarity on Antetokounmpo’s situation before finalizing the move.

But with Milwaukee signaling that Giannis would not be traded before the offseason began, Phoenix pushed ahead to ensure it could make the No. 10 overall selection in the draft.

The Rockets, who acquired Durant, still possess enough young talent and draft capital to pursue additional moves, potentially including a run at Antetokounmpo if his situation in Milwaukee deteriorates shortly.

Meanwhile, the Spurs and Knicks remain in asset-accumulation mode, with one league executive telling reporters the Spurs are “stocking their assets for potentially a bigger move.”

Antetokounmpo has consistently voiced his desire to win, and his patience will likely be tested as the Bucks try to build a contending roster under tight constraints.

While no trade is imminent, the summer ahead may prove critical in determining whether the Greek superstar will remain in Milwaukee for the long haul or if the league’s next seismic shift is just around the corner.