For NBA diehard fans and casual fans alike, the postseason excitement is alluring and exhilarating. The regular season coming to an end gives those invested a short amount of breathing time before the huge post-season calendar starts to ramp up. As the excitement in the air grows, so too does the money being put into offshore sportsbooks and those gambling on the games, betting accounts. With the increase in betting on the games, finding more niche markets becomes necessary for those looking to find the best odds and winnings from each game as the NBA season progresses.
One of the best markets to attract better odds is in the over/under lines for total points scored in games. However, knowing a bit about the playoffs and everything that comes with them is crucial when placing your money on these games to make sure you have the best chance possible of winning – so here’s what you need to know.
What exactly is over/under betting?
Pretty simple in theory, over/unders bets in sports betting are a wager that you place predicting if you think the total score will be over a certain amount or under a certain amount. This has been popularised in soccer betting for years but has spread to all sports in more recent times. The set line is created by the bookmakers and varies from game to game depending on injuries, what teams are playing, and the form of the teams.
A simple example of a bet would be that in an NBA playoff match, the line is set by the bookmakers at 190 points. This would mean you either bet:
- For the points to be over 190
- Or bet for the points to be under 190
Scoring trends
As athletes have been increasingly getting more powerful and more talented with the advancements in sports science and nutrition, their stats have matched this.
If you take a look at the stats from the NBA play-offs seasons for the last 10 years you will see that in the 2024-25 play-offs, the average points per game per team in each play-off has been 113.7 which has been slowly climbing up season on season since the 100.00 average points per game per team noted in the NBA 2014-15 play-off season. Now this trend would suggest that you are more than likely going to get over 220 points a game in a play-off clash in the most recent season. This is something worth noting, but within this context, it is also worth noting that it does depend on who is playing as to how many points you can expect in a game.
The best teams in the league each year are likely to gather more points per game as they thrash other lesser opponents. Top teams such as the Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Denver Nuggets all reach over 120 points average per game throughout the 2024/25 season.
- Cleveland Cavaliers – 122.7
- Memphis Grizzlies – 122.6
- Denver Nuggets – 121.1
This would suggest that you are more likely to want to favour a higher ‘overs’ bet when these teams are playing, however, when betting on these teams, you might find the odds are slightly shorter than if you were to wager money on other, less favourable teams. That’s where offshore sportsbooks are useful. They have deep market options and can present you with great odds on different kinds of bets to allow you to have some exciting punts during this postseason.
Play-off pressure
Knowing how the bet functions is fine and having all the stats in the world is fine, but knowing when to place such a bet can be the tricky part when it comes to over and under betting. The intensity and pressure that is placed on every play-off game can have a considerable effect on the players and the result. Teams can adjust strategies and switch up tactics to exploit weaknesses in their opponents, and this can change trends that have been set throughout the season. This makes it slightly more risky but much more enthralling when taking a punt on overs/unders markets.
Historical tendencies
- Dominant defenses
No matter what support it is across the globe, when it comes to play-offs and later stage knock-outs, teams are looking to take control of the game and play the tempo at their own pace. This sees teams focus a lot more on their defensive tactics and nullify the opponent’s ability to gain the lead.
This is something worth noting when placing over/under bets. It is perhaps most crucial when the post-season match-ups allow for the bigger teams to play each other and have become familiar with play-styles. These types of games are often tactical shoot-outs which can impact the amount of scoring that is achieved in each game. However, it does often make for some scintillating possession-based play for the neutral to enjoy.
- Top talent
As NBA teams reach the playoffs, it starts to become the creme de la creme of players across the country, pitted against each other in a bid to win the title. So whilst defense may become more important, star players begin to shine on the court and this can so often be the breakthrough that the top teams gain an edge. With immense talent, the likes of LeBron James and Stephen Curry can often singlehandedly shift the trajectory of the game and increase those points tallies which may significantly affect over/under wagers.
- Form and Location
One of the other major impacts on every game throughout the season, but something that is particularly magnified during the postseason, is the form that each team is i,n alongside with the location at which the match is being held. Home-court advantages have been proven to be a huge aspect of how a team will perform with their own fans right behind them cheering them on the whole way. It will come as no surprise that teams are more likely to score more points when they are playing at home and this is something worth considering when you are placing your bets. In the same vein, the current form of the team can play a major role in these kinds of games. Things like injuries, trades, and tactical coaching changes are all important to note and should be something that you think about before placing those over/under bets.
