ESPN senior writer Kevin Pelton has released his season projections for all NBA teams in the 2023-24 season. To the surprise of many, Pelton’s projections place the Los Angeles Lakers, who reached the Conference Finals last year, in the 8th position in the Western Conference.
In contrast, the reigning NBA champions, the Denver Nuggets, are anticipated to secure the 3rd spot in the competitive Western Conference.
According to Pelton’s analysis, the Los Angeles Clippers are predicted to barely secure a spot in the play-in tournament.
It’s worth noting that the Clippers are actively pursuing James Harden in a potential trade, which could significantly alter the composition of their roster and impact their season outlook.
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, after missing the postseason entirely last year, are also expected to be part of the play-in tournament.
In the Eastern Conference, Pelton’s projections place the Boston Celtics as the top-seeded team. The Milwaukee Bucks, bolstered by the acquisition of Damian Lillard, are projected to secure the 3rd spot.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers, who are dealing with Harden’s trade request that has the potential to reshape their roster, are slated to finish in the 4th position.
In explaining his projections, Pelton wrote on ESPN: “Nonetheless, statistical projections can be revealing. Mine are based on a combination of my SCHOENE player projections for box score stats as well as three-year, luck-adjusted RAPM from NBAshotcharts.com.
“I estimate games played based on those missed over the past three years and then make subjective predictions for playing time. The result is an expected wins total based on average health luck.”
Pelton’s projections for the Eastern Conference are as follows:
- Celtics: 54.3 wins
- Cavaliers: 48.6 wins
- Bucks: 48.5 wins
- 76ers: 46.9 wins
- Knicks: 44.6 wins
- Hawks: 43.8 wins
- Heat: 42.7 wins
- Raptors: 42.7 wins
- Nets: 40.0 wins
- Pacers: 38.6 wins
For the Western Conference, Pelton’s projections are as follows:
- Grizzlies: 48.4 wins
- Timberwolves: 47.7 wins
- Nuggets: 46.4 wins
- Warriors: 43.7 wins
- Suns: 43.5 wins
- Pelicans: 43.2 wins
- Kings: 43.1 wins
- Lakers: 41.5 wins
- Mavericks: 41.4 wins
- Clippers: 40.3 wins
It’s worth noting that among the teams projected to miss the playoffs, the San Antonio Spurs, who drafted Victor Wembanyama as the No. 1 pick this summer, are predicted to again finish at the bottom of the Western Conference with 26.4 wins.
