The NBA regular season is over, ballots have been cast and expectations are rightfully high. Who will be this year’s MVP? For the second straight year, Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks, Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers and Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets are the final three players in the race for NBA MVP. Jokic has laid claim to the honour in the last two seasons and Antetokounmpo also has two MVP awards but it is Embiid who goes in as the favourite to take it this season. Jokic likely stands the best chance of stopping him as he hopes to break the trend of back-to-back MVP winners failing to claim a three-peat but will he have enough to get there after such a hotly contested race for the coveted prize? The winner is set to be announced during the playoffs and here’s our look at the two frontrunners as we reach the climax of this captivating competition.
Jokic’s case for MVP
Jokić has been incredible all season and has led the Nuggets to the top seed in the Western Conference with an impressive 53-29 record heading into the playoffs. A slow start hindered his odds with the bookies before he got back to the form we’ve seen over the last two seasons, placing him as favourite to once again claim the award before a late surge from Embiid saw him sneak in ahead of the Serbian before the final three were announced. That late blow has done little to detract from what the 28-year-old has accomplished this season. During the regular season, the centre averaged 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists for Northwest Division champion Denver, in doing so he became the first player to ever average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists on at least 60% shooting over a single season in NBA history. He is the league leader in triple-doubles, the Nugget’s all-time single-season leader in field-goal percentage and topped his team’s leaderboard in virtually every other significant metric there is. He is an exceptional once in a generation talent and his statistics this season back that up.
Individually this puts him in a class of his own, but in terms of what his output does for the collective good of his team, he is invaluable for the Nuggets and their chances of a championship. The supporting cast of the other two candidates for MVP undoubtedly help them here and while it seems unfair to diminish someone’s credentials for this award because of the abilities of the team they’re surrounded by, but when it comes down to it Jokic adds a lot more value to his side because of it. When Jokic is on court, the Nuggets outscore opponents by 13.3 points per 100 possessions, when he’s off it, they get outscored by 13.8 points per 100 possessions. When he’s playing they are the best team in the league and when he’s absent they’re the worst, Denver cannot compete without him. It’s as simple as that. Jokic has a shot at three MVP awards in a row, only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird have managed it, but he will have the unenviable task of overcoming so-called voter fatigue that has robbed plenty of others of well-earned MVP awards in the past to beat the sentimental favourite in Embiid.
Embiid’s case for MVP
To suggest that the Cameroonian sits in pole position with the bookies for the MVP award solely because of so-called voter fatigue is a short-sighted argument that falls flat on its face when you hold it to any sort of scrutiny. It is certainly contributory, particularly as we get closer to that announcement date, but there is no denying the 29-year-old’s output this season has been incredible. His opposition certainly think so, as an anonymous players poll put together by The Athletic revealed that Embiid was the landslide winner, with 50% of the 102 unnamed players’ votes. According to betting sites with free bet promotions available in the US, Embiid is the clear favourite with odds of +200 and the statistics show why. Embiid averaged a league-best 33.1 points per game along with 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists for the 76ers who finished with a record of 54-28, second in the Atlantic Division and third overall in the Eastern Conference. He won the league’s leading scorer title for the second consecutive season, joining Shaquille O’Neal as the only centre to do so while also becoming the first centre in four decades to score more than 30 points in a game. He shot a career high from the field, became only the third Sixer to shoot a trio of 50-point contests in a single season and has been a dominant monster in defence all season. He is a first ballot MVP award winner in any season and is well-positioned to go one better than his back-to-back second place in the MVP award race.
In terms of value brought to his side, there’s no doubt that Embiid brings a lot to the table for the Sixers, it’s just not as much as what Jokic bring to the Nuggets. He is a player worthy of an MVP award playing at a level that warrants an MVP award, which goes to show the quality of competition for the award this year, but it doesn’t stop the fact that his team could probably just about get by without him whereas the same cannot be said for his counterpart. When Embiid isn’t on the court the Sixers are just over 10 points worse off per 100 possessions, the Nuggets are 27 worse per 100 possessions without Jokic, that tells a story. Having said that, Embiid will more than likely walk away as MVP, spoiling the Serbian’s chances of a three-peat in the process. The sympathetic vote is in his favour having fallen just short in years gone by and secured back-to-back highest points scoring accolades; if there was ever a time where voter fatigue would play its part it is surely now. Again, this is not to discredit his contributions this year, it’s just to say it will be a factor in the final tally. He has shown time after time that he can be the most dominant player on the court on any given night and this season, after being the runner-up for the award the last two years, MVP more than likely belongs to him.
