Home Columns Blogs Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Prediction

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Prediction

Photo: Houston Rockets

This is what everyone wanted to see. The Golden State Warriors getting challenged by the Houston Rockets.

Just when it looked like the Warriors were going to cut down that big fourth quarter lead and overtake the Rockets, both Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry missed threes in the final seconds. As a result, the Rockets avoided OT and won both home games.

Now they have to go back to the Oracle Arena where they are listed as six-point underdogs by online sports betting sites. Can the Rockets take back home-court advantage?

Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors

James Harden was a beast in Game 4. He was dropping threes on everybody. That little step back threes fell true over and over again. But can he and Austin Rivers repeat that kind of offensive performance in Oakland?

The Houston Rockets don’t play as well on the road as they do at home. They boast just the No. 16 road offense with 110.16 points per game.

On the flip side of the coin, the Warriors average 118.17 at the Oracle Arena, which is good enough for the No. 2 home offense in the league.

At home, the Warriors do everything better, not just score more points. They get over four more rebounds per game, shoot 2% better from the line, about 3% better from three-point land, and close to 5% better from the field. In short, the Rockets are going to have their work cut out for them.

Photo: Twitter/Houston Rockets

The Last 10

These teams are well met in battle. They’ve split wins 5-5 over the last 10 meetings. However, the Rockets have a 6-4 ATS advantage, meaning they have covered the spread better than Golden State.

That said, even though they are 5-5, the Warriors have a 110.20 to 108.90 margin of victory. So, even though they are split, the Warriors outscore the Rockets overall.

Something to note, in the last seven games, not a single one has been more than a six-point victory for either team. The last time that happened is when the Rockets blew out the Warriors in Houston back in November of 2018.

Furthermore, before the post-season, the Rockets took two games off of the Warriors in Oakland, so don’t count the Rockets out in Game 5 just because the Warriors are on their home turf once more.

With the wins so parable, let’s look at ATS trends:

  • The Rockets are 31-25-2 against the spread (55.4%) after a win.
  • The Rockets are 9-8 (52.9%) against the spread as away underdogs.
  • The Rockets are 6-3 (66.7%) against the spread in playoff games.
  • The Rockets are 19-25-1 (43.2%) against the spread as the away team overall.
  • The Warriors are 18-26-1 (40.9%) against the spread as home favorites.
  • The Warriors are 18-27-1 (40.0%) against the spread as the home team.
  • The Warriors are 13-15-0 (46.4%) against the spread after a loss.
  • The Warriors are 35-47-1 (42.7%) against the spread as a favorite.

So looking at the ATS trends we can see that neither of these teams is historically good at covering the spread.

Photo: Twitter/NBA

The Rockets are slightly better than the Warriors ATS, but the Warriors have been cursed with crazy-high spread lines due to the perceived talent of their team, especially at home. No team has had as many double-digit lines as the Warriors.

The point spread for this game fall right into the wheelhouse of both teams, especially for this matchup.

The boys in Vegas did a great job of setting this line. That said, The Rockets have won two straight. They have some momentum. Even if they lose this game, I have a feeling they are going to keep it close.

Take the Rockets +6 on Wednesday night.

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