[TeoTheGreek13]

Group A
Argentina
France
Tunisia
USA
QF1
QF2

Group B
Australia
Brazil
China
Great Britain
Spain
QF3

***The best 4 of each group will form the quarter-finals.

[TeoTheGreek13]

Let's see what's the best for Greece!!!

We'll hopefully be at full strength(with DD being the only exception).
With that being said, if we finish 1st or 2nd in the pre-Olympic tournament it means that we beat Russia in the Semi Final.
So, the team that we'll play in the Final will, possibly, be Lithuania or FYROM.

So, there will be 4 spots for USA(reserved), Argentina, France, Greece and Lithuania(or FYROM).
If we qualify as #4, we'll probably play Spain...
If we qualify as #2 or #3(#1 as I said is reserved) we'll have accomplish not only to qualify from such a tough group but also we will have manage to avoid USA in the next rounds.
If we get eliminated, then we just don't deserve to go further.
Our goal is a medal. We had enough with the 3 straight 5th seeds in Olympics.
If we play in the second group and qualify easily and then get eliminated is the same thing to me as to get eliminated in the group stage.



If we lose to Russia in the Semi Final and go to Group B(if we win the 3rd seed game of course) we'll have easy time of qualifying in the Semis.

Anyway, I'm positive that we'll have a very strong team after 3 years of mediocre(result-wise) teams.
If we manage to avoid USA and Spain till the Final it wouldn't be a surprise if we reach the Final.
If we meet one of them in the Semis, then, I think that the bronze medal would be a realistic target!


Go Greece!

[skangles]

How would you rank each team on a scale from 1-10 (10 being the best)? Let's assume that the 3 teams that qualify are Russia, Greece and Lithuania. I think all three teams are pretty even in terms of talent so I'll rate them all 7. This is of course based on a pretty major assumption about who qualifies but it's an interesting exercise on a hypothetical situation. As Raze pointed out in the US thread, Group A looks unreasonably tough.


Group A
Argentina = 8
France = 8
Tunisia =1
USA = 10
QF1 = 7
QF2 = 7
Group A Average = 6.83

Group B
Australia = 5
Brazil = 6
China = 2
Great Britain = 4
Spain = 9
QF3 = 7
Group B Average = 5.5

[TeoTheGreek13]

I can't really rank teams like Tunisia so, I'll rank the good teams.

I assume that teams like Argentina and France will be with full roster...

USA~ 10
Spain~ 9
Argentina~ 8
France~ 8
Greece~ 8
Russia~ 8
Lithuania~ 7.5
Great Britain~ 6.5-7 ...they'll have Deng, Gordon, Mullens, Freeland and generally all of their good players. They'll have full roster. Ben Gordon is a huge adition.

[straight forward]

TeoTheGreek13, on 01 May 2012 - 01:37 PM, said:

I can't really rank teams like Tunisia so, I'll rank the good teams.

I assume that teams like Argentina and France will be with full roster...

USA~ 10
Spain~ 9
Argentina~ 8
France~ 8
Greece~ 8
Russia~ 8
Lithuania~ 7.5
Great Britain~ 6.5-7 ...they'll have Deng, Gordon, Mullens, Freeland and generally all of their good players. They'll have full roster. Ben Gordon is a huge adition.

What kind of criteria you useing by this judge?
Greece and Russia haven't won a thing in Olympics in decades...
Argentina is still strong, but getting aged.
Lithuania, the most consistent team of Olympics with USA since 1992 is at 7,8 place?

If there are teams to notice in these tournaments - it's 4 most consistent Olympic teams: USA, Lithuania, Argentina, Spain. Other than those have to prove a shi.. in the most competitive international tournament first.

This post has been edited by straight forward: 01 May 2012 - 02:51 PM

[TeoTheGreek13]

straight forward, on 01 May 2012 - 02:47 PM, said:

What kind of criteria you useing by this judge?
Greece and Russia haven't won a thing in Olympics in decades...
Argentina is still strong, but getting aged.
Lithuania, the most consistent team of Olympics with USA since 1992 is at 7,8 place?

If there are teams to notice in these tournaments - it's 4 most consistent Olympic teams: USA, Lithuania, Argentina, Spain. Other than those have to prove a shi.. in the most competitive international tournament first.

Why should I care about team's tradition???

You don't have Sabonis or Marciulionis anymore. You don't have the young Saras, you don't have Siskauskas, Lavrinovic brothers are nothing compared to what they were, Kaukenas will be out.
I just think that Lithuania isn't that strong. You have a young team that could be contender in the next years but not this year.

I gave Argentina an 8 because of Ginobili, Scola, Delfino and Prigioni.
They always had few great players but those players were so good that Argentina is still #2 on the world ranking.

Russia won the 2007 Eurobasket and they won the bronze medal last year. What the hell has their Olympic games tradition has to do with how good they are?

USA and Spain's rankings doesn't really need further analysis.

I also gave Greece an 8 because of our roster. Everyone will be available except Diamantidis.
France was #2 in the Eurobasket last year and they have players ike Parker, Batum, Noah, Pietrus and Diaw. So, yeah, I think that's an 8 maybe 8.5.

[straight forward]

TeoTheGreek13, on 01 May 2012 - 05:34 PM, said:

Why should I care about team's tradition???

You don't have Sabonis or Marciulionis anymore. You don't have the young Saras, you don't have Siskauskas, Lavrinovic brothers are nothing compared to what they were, Kaukenas will be out.
I just think that Lithuania isn't that strong. You have a young team that could be contender in the next years but not this year.

I gave Argentina an 8 because of Ginobili, Scola, Delfino and Prigioni.
They always had few great players but those players were so good that Argentina is still #2 on the world ranking.

Russia won the 2007 Eurobasket and they won the bronze medal last year. What the hell has their Olympic games tradition has to do with how good they are?

USA and Spain's rankings doesn't really need further analysis.

I also gave Greece an 8 because of our roster. Everyone will be available except Diamantidis.
France was #2 in the Eurobasket last year and they have players ike Parker, Batum, Noah, Pietrus and Diaw. So, yeah, I think that's an 8 maybe 8.5.

Why you should care about tradition? As Hanah Arendt said if there's no past - there's no future Why would some Greeks come up with argument that you don't have Sabas and Marčiulionis anymore when asked why they underrate Lithuania? Lithuania won already 4 medals without these legends. Young and without Šaras, Kaukėnas, Šiškauskas, Lavrinivičs, Songaila (without Valančiūnas, Motiejūnas as well) NT 2010 destroyed Argentina (with Scola, Delfino, Prigioni, but without Ginobili) and gave USA probably the best run for their money. We can discuss different matchups, to argue about depth and talent (and we will when the tournament begin or at least we'll know the rosters), but to put it short - I don't see why Lithuania shouldn't be 3d best team in Olympics after USA and Spain. In other words, except these two teams I don't see a single team that Lithuania couln't battle and couldn't win. Having in mind Lithuania's culture, consistency, current depth and tremendous raw talent I don't see why Luthuania should be ranked behid any team except USA, Spain. That's off course with all- roster. Kaukėnas is in action for about a week and is playing well. So my point is clear - Greece, Argentina, Russia, France and Lithuania are all about the same level and only the history, attitude, determination and extreame consistency makes me favour Argentina and Lithuania. Some reminder:



Ok, so what's with Greece? Who are these players that will lead Greece except Spanoulis? Off couse, I know Greece has deep and solid roster, but didn't found convincing that argument "because of our roster". You won't even have your best player in the tournament, where the optimism comes from?

This post has been edited by straight forward: 01 May 2012 - 06:38 PM

[TeoTheGreek13]

straight forward, on 01 May 2012 - 06:06 PM, said:

Why you should care about tradition? As Hanah Arendt said if there's no past - there's no future Why would some Greeks come up with argument that you don't have Sabas and Marčiulionis anymore when asked why they underrate Lithuania? Lithuania won already 4 medals without these legends. Young and without Šaras, Kaukėnas, Šiškauskas, Lavrinivičs, Songaila (without Valančiūnas, Motiejūnas as well) NT 2010 destroyed Argentina (with Scola, Delfino, Prigioni, but without Ginobili) and gave USA probably the best run for their money. We can discuss different matchups, to argue about depth and talent (and we will when the tournament begin or at least we'll know the rosters), but to put it short - I don't see why Lithuania shouldn't be 3d best team in Olympics after USA and Spain. In other words, except these two teams I don't see a single team that Lithuania couln't battle and couldn't win. Having in mind Lithuania's culture, consistency, current depth and tremendous raw talent I don't see why Luthuania should be ranked behid any team except USA, Spain. That's off course with all- roster. Kaukėnas is in action for about a week and is playing well. So my point is clear - Greece, Argentina, Russia, France and Lithuania are all about the same level and only the history, attitude, determination and extreame consistency makes me favour Argentina and Lithuania. Some reminder:



Ok, so what's with Greece? Who are these players that will lead Greece except Spanoulis? Off couse, I know Greece has deep and solid roster, but didn't found convincing that argument "because of our roster". You won't even have your best player in the tournament, where the optimism comes from?

"As Hanah Arendt said if there's no past - there's no future" ...That's true... but completely irrelevant.

Fotsis, Bourousis, Zisis, Sofo, Calathes and many others are the players that will be along Spanoulis.
I don't really need to explain further my rankings.
That's just what I think. You don't have to agree.

FYROM also gave a run to Spain. What is that mean after all???

In my opinion, Greece, Russia, France and Argentina(WITH Manu) are better than Lithuania without that necessarily mean that Lithuania can't beat them.
Also, Serbia is better but they're out of the conversation since they didn't make it to the Olympics.

[straight forward]

We'll see what happens Teo, Lithuania and Greece might meet each other in qualification already.

[skangles]

Straight Forward, you're right in that the ratings are subjective. In my rankings I only considered 2010 onwards with a bigger weighted factor for last summer. Lithuania is a tough one to measure because they were excellent on a neutral court in 2010 but were fairly lackluster at home in 2011. Yes, they were without Kleiza in 2011 and there will be roster changes this summer but I think the onus is back on Lithuania to prove themselves in Caracas.

In my opinion once you get past the US and Spain the next tier is all pretty comparable. I give Argentina an 8 for winning the Tournament of the Americas and whilst aging I think that they realize this is their last run at dominance. I also rated France an 8 because they got the job done last summer and are ridiculously deep.

I rate Lithuania, Russia and Greece all 7 because if those are the three teams that qualify I don't think that the existing teams in Group A and B would feel like they caught a break irrespective of how Russia, Lithuania and Greece are distributed. Conversely, if a team like Venezuela somehow makes it through teams would gladly welcome them into their group.

[Black Urum]

straight forward, on 01 May 2012 - 02:47 PM, said:

Lithuania, the most consistent team of Olympics with USA since 1992 is at 7,8 place?

I think it's not 7th or 8th place, but 7 or 8/10... like a mark. Hence USA being 10/10 (although with so many injuries, Spain might actually have a chance).

[stefans]

Spain is in easy group.I expect from USA and France awesome match

[straight forward]

skangles, on 01 May 2012 - 11:30 PM, said:

Straight Forward, you're right in that the ratings are subjective. In my rankings I only considered 2010 onwards with a bigger weighted factor for last summer. Lithuania is a tough one to measure because they were excellent on a neutral court in 2010 but were fairly lackluster at home in 2011. Yes, they were without Kleiza in 2011 and there will be roster changes this summer but I think the onus is back on Lithuania to prove themselves in Caracas.

Not only Kleiza, but Mačiulis as well. Both were the motors of intensity - one in offense, other in defence. Both were starters of that very intense and succesful NT of 2010. Also the addition: JV, Motiejūnas, Kaukėnas, Šaras. I agree it's a challenge to make a team from all of that, chemistry and so on, but on the paper it should be a sharply improved version of 2010 WC team. I'm very optimistic. Kemzura has very good material (basically everything he needs if Šaras comes) and it's up to him how he'll deal with that.

Black Urum, I see that, but as I said I'm against the idea Lithuania has lower mark than any team except USA and Spain. That's my position.

[skangles]

A couple of tidbits on Argentina: Ginoboli said that he'll play the olympics like it is his last tournament but he hasn't ruled out playing for Argentina again in the future. Additionally, Delfino underwent hernia surgery that will keep him sidelined for 6-8 weeks. I didn't read how this will impact his Olympic plans.